I've got my eye on bar and restaurant sales.

The February 2025 retail sales data release shows a decline of 1.5% for bars and restaurants. This is a big decline. To put in into context, in 2024 the restaurant sales grew by only 2.8% amidst inflation. During the 2007-2009 financial crisis, restaurant spending fell by 11.5% on an inflation-adjusted basis. So that 1.5% move in February is already a significant decline.

Restaurant spending provides an early view into consumer confidence because it's one of the first expenses people cut when they're worried about finances. Unlike necessities, dining out is optional—when consumers pull back from restaurants, it often signals they're preparing for economic turbulence.

The stock market didn't begin collapsing until March, so I'm very curious what the next data release will show.